The Beginning of the End? Post-NYC Contraction, Ongoing Litigation, and Future Trajectories of the U.S. Foie Gras Industry (2022–Present)

Industry Footprint: The U.S. foie gras industry today is minuscule compared to other animal agriculture sectors. Only three farms in the country still produce foie gras – two large operations in Sullivan County, New York (Hudson Valley Foie Gras and La Belle Farm) and a couple of much smaller artisanal farms (e.g. Au Bon Canard in Minnesota, and Backwater Foie Gras in Louisiana)1. Together, the two New York farms slaughter on the order of 400,000–500,000 ducks per year, yielding fatty livers sold as foie gras2. Hudson Valley Foie Gras (HVFG) remains the largest producer (reportedly ~312,000 ducks/year), while La Belle Farm processes around 130,000–182,000 ducks annually34. By contrast, Americans consume over 9 billion chickens a year, highlighting how tiny and niche this industry is in scale5. The two major foie gras farms employ only about 500 workers combined (HVFG alone employs ~320 people)63. Production & Products: Virtually all U.S. foie gras comes from domestic duck production. These farms raise Moulard (Mulard) ducks – a sterile hybrid breed – and engage in the force-feeding process (gavage) to enlarge their livers. Whole lobes of duck liver (Grade A foie gras) are sold fresh or frozen to restaurants and gourmet retailers; producers also sell value-added products like torchons, pâtés/mousses, and other duck products. In fact, the farms try to utilize “everything but the quack”: beyond the prized liver (which can weigh 1-2 lbs), they sell the duck breasts (magret), legs (confit), rendered fat, down feathers (to pillow manufacturers), and even organs like tongues and feet for soup7. This diversified product mix helps maximize revenue and offset the limited demand for foie gras itself. Role of Imports: While France is by far the world’s largest foie gras producer, imports play a relatively minor role in the U.S. market. Historically, imported foie gras from France or Canada accounted for well under 15% of U.S. sales by value8. Today, domestic farms supply the majority of foie gras consumed in America, especially for fresh product. Some specialty grocers do carry canned or jarred French foie gras, and luxury distributors can import products (e.g. French goose foie gras for niche clientele). However, with California’s ban (see below), the U.S. import landscape shifted – Californians can legally order foie gras from out-of-state sources for personal use due to a court-carved loophole9, meaning farms like HVFG fill some demand via mail-order. Overall, imported foie gras remains a small supplement to domestic output, and the market relies primarily on the two New York duck farms. Major Markets: The contraction of foie gras’s market is evident in its geographic strongholds. New York City has long been the single largest market for foie gras in the U.S., historically representing as much as 20–30% of domestic sales10. With NYC’s attempted ban (discussed below), producers scrambled to cultivate other key metro markets. Today, leading markets include: Las Vegas, NV – A top luxury dining destination, with many high-end restaurants (and no local ban), Vegas is a major outlet for foie gras dishes. Chicago, IL – Renowned for its culinary scene. Chicago infamously banned foie gras in 2006, only to repeal the ban in 200811. Currently, foie gras can be served, and many fine dining establishments quietly offer it. Washington, D.C. (DMV area) – Upscale D.C. restaurants and suburban Virginia/Maryland dining rooms serve foie gras; there’s no ban yet, though activists are increasingly active here. Philadelphia, PA – Pennsylvania borders the NY farms, and Philly’s gourmet restaurants remain buyers of foie gras. (Notably, 80% of Pennsylvania voters polled years ago supported banning foie gras12, but no law has passed.) Boston/Cambridge, MA – New England’s fine dining hub still allows foie gras, though some chefs have dropped it under pressure. Texas (Dallas/Houston/Austin) – The “Texas triangle” cities host high-end steakhouses and French restaurants that occasionally feature foie gras, with little public outcry so far. Other pockets: New Orleans, Miami, Seattle, and Phoenix/Scottsdale are among other locales where foie gras appears on luxury menus without legal restriction. Meanwhile, California remains entirely off-limits for foie gras sales (production and sales were banned by a 2004 law that took effect in 2012). Californians can order foie gras shipped from out-of-state to their homes due to a court ruling, but restaurants and retailers in CA cannot sell it13. As a result, major food cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco are effectively closed markets. This has funneled West Coast foie gras dining largely to Las Vegas or underground supper clubs. Industry Contraction: With NYC’s status in flux until recently, the domestic foie gras market has been in a phase of contraction and uncertainty. Many U.S. restaurants have proactively dropped foie gras from menus, either out of ethical concerns or to avoid attracting protests. Carlina Rivera, the NYC Council member who led the ban effort, noted that foie gras was served in less than 1% of New York City restaurants by 201914 – evidence that it’s a niche “luxury” item, not a mainstream menu staple. As consumer awareness of animal welfare grows, foie gras has shifted from a marker of haute cuisine to, in many eyes, an anachronistic indulgence consumed by a shrinking elite clientele. The overall domestic production volume has plateaued or declined in recent years, and the industry’s economic footprint – roughly $20–30 million in annual sales (by rough estimates) – is tiny in the context of U.S. agribusiness1516.

The post-2020 period has seen intense legislative and legal battles over foie gras in the United States, with animal advocates and the industry clashing on multiple fronts. The fight has largely shifted to city and state halls – and courtrooms – as activists push for bans while producers invoke legal protections. Below is a timeline and overview of the key campaigns and ongoing litigation since 2022: New York City’s Foie Gras Ban (2019–2024): In late 2019, New York City passed a landmark law (Local Law 202) banning the sale of foie gras from force-fed birds, set to take effect in November 202217. This was a huge victory for animal advocates at the time – NYC’s ~1,000 foie gras-serving restaurants would no longer be able to sell it18. However, as the effective date approached, the two Sullivan County farms (HVFG and La Belle) launched a multi-pronged counterattack: In September 2022, they filed suit in New York state court and secured a preliminary injunction blocking NYC from enforcing the ban19. Simultaneously, the farmers appealed to the New York State Department of Agriculture & Markets, arguing the city law violated Section 305-a of the Agriculture and Markets Law – a state “right-to-farm” statute that prohibits localities from unreasonably restricting farming in agricultural districts2021. The NY Agriculture Commissioner sided with the farmers, issuing an order in early 2022 declaring NYC’s foie gras ban an unlawful interference in farming2022. “NYC’s proposed ban…would unreasonably restrict [the farms’] operations,” the Department ruled, ordering the city to stand down23. NYC, under Mayor Eric Adams, fought back. The city sued the state (and the Ag Department) to overturn that determination, arguing that protecting ducks from cruelty was a valid local concern and that the state’s intervention was “arbitrary and capricious”2425. For a moment in mid-2023, it appeared NYC had gained an upper hand – a state judge found the Ag Department’s blocking of the ban lacked sufficient basis, suggesting the city could justify a ban on moral grounds2627. Final Outcome: In June 2024, the New York State Supreme Court (Albany County) delivered a decisive win for the farms: it struck down NYC’s ban entirely, ruling that the city law does violate state law and is preempted by the Agricultural Districts Act2819. The court held that even an “indirect, extraterritorial restriction” like NYC’s sales ban unlawfully regulated farm operations upstate2930. In short, the farmers’ right-to-farm trumped the city’s animal welfare ordinance. As of 2025, foie gras can continue to be sold in NYC restaurants, pending any further appeals3132. (It’s unclear if NYC will appeal; the city had limited appetite to continue a costly legal fight it was likely to lose3334.) This hard-fought case – City of New York v. Ball – underscores the industry’s resolve to use aggressive legal strategies to defend its markets. “This ruling is a victory for farmers across New York State…preserving our right to farm,” declared Sergio Saravia, president of La Belle Farm, after the 2024 decision35. California Legal Saga: California’s statewide ban on foie gras (effective 2012) has remained intact through the 2020s, surviving endless court challenges by producers. In 2019, the U.S. Supreme Court twice refused to hear foie gras industry appeals, leaving the CA ban constitutionally upheld3637. One lingering wrinkle was whether out-of-state sellers could ship foie gras to Californians. In 2020, a federal court clarified that while in-state sales are illegal, the law “does not prohibit imports of foie gras from out of state” for individual purchasers38. The Ninth Circuit affirmed in 2021–22 that personal online orders delivered from out-of-state are lawful, even as restaurant sales remain banned3940. The foie gras producers (including HVFG and a Canadian supplier) tried to overturn even this law via Dormant Commerce Clause arguments, but those were definitively shut down. In July 2022, the Ninth Circuit denied the industry’s last rehearing petition, ending the case41. Thus, California stands as the only U.S. state with a full ban on foie gras sales (aside from the personal purchase loophole)42. The U.S. Supreme Court’s refusal to intervene (most recently in 2019) solidifies California as a no-go zone for foie gras – a significant market loss the industry has had to accept. New City-Level Bans: In the wake of NYC’s stalled ban, animal advocates have taken the fight to other localities: Pittsburgh, PA – In a surprise win for activists, Pittsburgh became one of the first U.S. cities (outside California) to ban foie gras sales. On December 19, 2023, the Pittsburgh City Council voted 7–2 to outlaw the sale of products from force-fed birds43. This “groundbreaking” ordinance was spearheaded by Councilperson Erika Strassburger with support from Humane Action Pittsburgh, and it explicitly targets foie gras as a product of cruel force-feeding4344. Animal advocates hailed it as a “historic victory” and immediately began monitoring local restaurants for compliance4546. Pittsburgh’s ban (which took effect in 2023–24) is notable because Pennsylvania is a major poultry state, yet even there a metro council found foie gras beyond the pale. So far, the foie gras industry has not (yet) mounted a legal challenge to Pittsburgh’s law – likely owing to the city’s relatively small market impact. The win has energized activists to replicate this strategy elsewhere. Other Cities on the Horizon – Encouraged by successes, advocacy coalitions are targeting additional cities and states. Chicago has periodically seen calls to reinstate its ban (though no new law has advanced since the 2008 repeal). Washington, D.C., Denver, CO, and Portland, OR are explicitly in activists’ sights as of 2024–25. In fact, a new group called Pro-Animal Future announced coordinated campaigns in those cities to “cut off key market access for this tiny industry,” with ordinances that force restaurants nationwide to reconsider whether serving foie gras is worth the trouble47. New York State itself periodically sees bills introduced to ban force-feeding (in the state legislature), but none have gained significant traction. Nevertheless, advocacy groups may pursue state-level bans in friendly states (e.g. Massachusetts or others) by drawing parallels to anti-cruelty laws for other animals. Defense of Existing Bans – Activists are also expending effort to defend the bans they’ve achieved. In NYC, groups like the Animal Legal Defense Fund (ALDF) and Voters for Animal Rights backed the city through amicus briefs and public campaigns3248, framing the issue as one of moral progress being stymied by industry influence (they note 81% of NYC voters supported the ban)48. In California, organizations continue to monitor restaurants and even take legal action against violators (as ALDF did against foie gras scofflaw chefs earlier in the 2010s4950). Ensuring enforcement – and closing loopholes – is part of the ongoing struggle. Corporate Campaigns & Legal Enforcement: Apart from legislation, recent advocacy has focused on pressuring retailers and enforcing existing laws: In mid-2025, the non-profit Animal Outlook conducted an investigation that caught Wild Fork Foods – a retail grocery chain owned by meat giant JBS – illegally selling foie gras in California (in violation of the state ban)5152. Their investigator documented foie gras (sourced from La Belle Farm, NY) openly for sale in all 11 Wild Fork stores in Southern California5354. After Animal Outlook publicized the findings and threatened legal action, Wild Fork quickly capitulated. As of August 5, 2025, Wild Fork announced it had removed foie gras from all of its 60+ stores across the U.S. and Canada – not just in California55. The company admitted a prohibited product had “inadvertently” been sold in CA and chose to discontinue foie gras entirely rather than risk further violations5655. This corporate campaign victory is significant: a major meat retailer dropped foie gras nationwide due to activist pressure, suggesting that even without new laws, public shaming can squeeze foie gras out of the marketplace. In New York, advocates have tried an innovative angle by invoking animal cruelty laws against foie gras producers. In late 2021, Animal Outlook filed a legal complaint urging New York authorities to prosecute HVFG and La Belle under the state’s anti-cruelty statute (Argiculture & Markets Law §353). They compiled evidence from investigations to argue that force-feeding ducks constitutes prohibited cruelty (since NY law does not exempt farmed poultry from all protections)5758. They noted precedents of extreme suffering: ducks at these farms have been found with ruptured organs, maggot-infested wounds, and some left to suffocate in cages – all for a “luxury” liver product4459. This approach essentially asks prosecutors to treat foie gras production as animal abuse under existing law. As of 2025, no charges have been brought, but the strategy reflects a growing legal activism aimed at forcing regulators to act when legislatures won’t. In summary, the current era is defined by hard-fought legislative wins and losses. NYC’s ban being overturned was a gut punch to activists, but they quickly notched a victory in Pittsburgh and are opening new fronts in other cities. The foie gras industry, for its part, has proven willing to engage in lengthy court battles and to leverage favorable laws (right-to-farm statutes, etc.) to shield itself. This tug-of-war is likely to continue in the near term, as each side tries to shape the regulatory map – either toward a patchwork of citywide bans that slowly choke off the market, or an impenetrable shield of state preemption that protects the last producers.

Animal protection groups have a long history of undercover investigations exposing cruelty in foie gras production, and that has continued into recent years. While no brand-new farm footage since 2020 has made major headlines, advocates have kept a spotlight on the issue through compilations of earlier evidence, new angles of critique (such as worker and environmental issues), and media campaigns. Key points include: Undercover Footage: Investigators from organizations like PETA, Mercy For Animals, Animal Outlook, and others have previously infiltrated both Hudson Valley Foie Gras and La Belle Farm, documenting the force-feeding process and its aftermath. These videos – though some date back a few years – remain central in current campaigns to illustrate that nothing fundamentally has changed. For instance, a PETA video (from a few years ago) showed a worker at HVFG force-feeding 500 ducks a day, ramming pipes down their throats, and even noted that workers received bonuses if they “accidentally” killed fewer than 50 ducks per month during feeding60. This implies that dozens of ducks do die from the force-feeding trauma on a regular basis; indeed, studies put mortality during gavage at 2–6% of ducks (versus ~0.2% on normal duck farms), a 900%+ higher death rate due to the process itself61. HVFG’s own records indicate roughly 15,000 ducks die each year before slaughter as a direct result of force-feeding injuries or stress62. Such statistics, repeatedly cited by advocates, undercut any notion that modern foie gras production is “humane.” Animal Suffering and Welfare Violations: The grisly scenes documented in investigations continue to fuel the narrative that foie gras is uniquely cruel. Common findings include ducks struggling to stand or breathe with grotesquely engorged livers, birds with bloody beaks or throats from tube injuries, and lethargic, panting ducks in filthy pens. Earlier undercover footage at HVFG famously showed ducks gasping for air and unable to escape, sometimes thrown into garbage bins while still alive6364. Investigators have filmed workers roughly handling ducks – grabbing them by wings or necks – to shove metal or plastic feeding tubes down their gullets6557. At La Belle in 2019, a visiting reporter observed that the farm used a pneumatic air compressor to inject corn mash down ducks’ throats in seconds, assembly-line style57. All of this evidence is routinely packaged by animal rights groups into exposé videos and reports that circulate online, keeping the issue in the public eye. New Angles: Worker and Environmental Issues: Recent campaigns have also highlighted how foie gras production isn’t just an animal welfare problem, but potentially a human and environmental one: Workers’ Rights: The labor force on foie gras farms is largely immigrant and economically vulnerable. During the COVID-19 pandemic, reports surfaced that HVFG workers faced hazardous conditions – e.g., insufficient protective measures and crowded working conditions akin to other meat plants. (Foie gras farms weren’t as widely reported on as big slaughterhouses, but activists drew parallels to the exploitation of workers in all factory farming.) Additionally, the repetitive, brutal nature of force-feeding work raises concerns about worker mental and physical health. While the industry rarely acknowledges this, animal advocates sometimes frame foie gras as unethical for workers too, forcing employees into “violent” tasks and low-pay farm labor. There was at least one anecdote of a serious workplace accident: years ago, a worker at one farm reportedly drowned in a manure pit – cited by activists to demonstrate the dangerous, deplorable conditions on such facilities. Environmental Impact: Foie gras farms concentrate a large number of ducks in relatively small facilities, which means significant manure output. In the past, HVFG was dubbed the “Duck Auschwitz” by activists partly due to the pollution generated. Runoff from duck manure can contaminate local waterways (the farms sit near the Catskill region in NY). There haven’t been major recent pollution scandals publicized, but concerns linger that these operations strain local resources. The farms counter that they follow environmental regulations, but no independent audits are publicly available. Activists sometimes include environmental notes (e.g. large amounts of grain force-fed to ducks is an inefficient use of resources, etc.) in broader factory farming critiques. Public Health Risks: A relatively new talking point ties foie gras to human health risks. Scientific studies have found that foie gras tissue contains certain amyloid proteins linked to amyloidosis. Researchers at the University of Tennessee discovered that consuming foie gras can deposit amyloid fibrils in organs; when mice were fed foie gras, they developed a lethal amyloid disease in mere weeks66. This raises the specter that eating foie gras could contribute to secondary amyloidosis in susceptible humans66. Moreover, foie gras is a diseased organ by definition (a liver with hepatic lipidosis), and some argue it should legally be considered an “adulterated” product unfit for the food supply. ALDF actually petitioned the USDA to require warning labels on foie gras as a diseased product and even sued over the agency’s inaction6768. Additionally, foie gras has been linked to severe foodborne illnesses: its high fat content and the slaughter process can invite contamination. There have been cases of Campylobacter outbreaks and Listeria contamination traced to foie gras, posing risks of food poisoning, miscarriages in pregnant women, etc., according to advocacy reports69. While not as prominent an angle as animal cruelty, these health concerns add to the rationale for restricting foie gras. Escalation in Framing: Animal advocates increasingly position foie gras as part of the broader factory farming problem. They highlight that while only hundreds of thousands of ducks suffer in foie gras farms (versus tens of millions of chickens and pigs in factory farms), the cruelty inherent in foie gras is emblematic of the cruelty in industrial animal agriculture. In other words, foie gras is used as a “gateway” issue to spur outrage that might extend to empathy for farmed animals generally. Some groups explicitly make this connection: for example, the advocacy collective behind Pittsburgh’s ban described foie gras as “derived from force-feeding animals” and immediately pivoted to say they’ll use that victory “as a catalyst for broader farm animal protections” across the state4570. This linkage is strategic – foie gras is relatively easy to abhor, even for people who eat meat, and campaigners leverage that to start conversations about other forms of intensive confinement (like cages for hens, gestation crates for pigs, etc.). Indeed, one Guardian piece quoted an activist saying foie gras is symbolic of man’s unnecessary exploitation of animals71 – i.e., if we can agree force-feeding a duck to create a luxury appetizer is unacceptable, it opens the door to questioning other “outdated cruelties” in the food system. Media and Public Campaigns: In the age of social media, exposé content about foie gras circulates widely. Graphic footage of ducks being force-fed or debilitated by illness garners sympathetic (and horrified) reactions from the public. Organizations like Animal Equality and PETA regularly share investigation videos online, sometimes with celebrity supporters. For example, actress Rooney Mara joined Animal Equality in 2021 for a high-profile factory farming investigation (though focused on pigs, she and others often mention foie gras in the context of extreme farm cruelties)72. In popular culture, foie gras remains a shorthand for gratuitous cruelty – it’s been lampooned or criticized in TV shows, cartoons, and by chefs themselves. Even some food influencers and chefs on Instagram have spoken out, substituting foie gras with plant-based alternatives in recipes. A notable development is the promotion of “faux gras” – vegan foie gras alternatives. Companies like Regal Vegan (with its “Faux Gras” mushroom-walnut pâté) have garnered media attention, presenting humane alternatives and further shifting the narrative that foie gras is unnecessary. In sum, undercover investigations and their fallout have kept foie gras in the public discourse as a cause célèbre for animal welfare – one that continually reminds consumers and policymakers of the cruelty behind certain luxury foods.

Facing constant criticism, the U.S. foie gras producers have in recent years emphasized alleged improvements in their farming practices – seeking to rebrand their product as more humane or “artisan.” It’s a clear bid to counter the cruelty narrative. Here’s a look at what the industry claims in terms of duck welfare, and how those claims stack up: “Cage-Free” Foie Gras: Both Hudson Valley Foie Gras and La Belle Farm now stress that their ducks are no longer kept in the old-style individual confinement cages during force-feeding. Hudson Valley proudly advertises its operation as cage-free73. On its website, HVFG notes that “most foie gras farms in the world” historically used individual cages for efficiency, but says “we believe in providing conditions which allow for social interaction, exercise, freedom of movement, and reduction of stress. For this reason, our ducks are maintained cage free.”73. Indeed, some years ago HVFG transitioned to group pens where ducks can move around and interact (the old metal isolation cages were phased out around the late 2000s under pressure). This is a notable welfare improvement on paper – it allows ducks to walk and flap their wings in between feedings, rather than being immobilized. However, it does not eliminate force-feeding or the stresses of intense confinement in a barn. Critics also point out that the group pens, while better than tiny cages, still crowd dozens of ducks together on wire mesh flooring, which can cause foot injuries and prevent natural behaviors like swimming7475. So, “cage-free” in this context means ducks are penned, but not individually tethered. “Hand-Feeding” Techniques: The farms have sought to euphemize gavage as “hand-feeding” and claim it is done gently. HVFG says it employs “specially trained caretakers” who spend extra time with each bird – “four times as much time caring for each animal as is the case in other foie gras farms,” resulting in “special care” for the ducks76. They also highlight that they use a rubber or plastic tube (instead of a rigid metal pipe) to minimize injury, and that feed is administered by hand rather than entirely mechanical means. (That said, videos show La Belle at least uses pneumatic pumps to speed the process77.) Both farms assert that their “unique, special method” of feeding “does not harm the ducks”7879. In a 2022 press statement, the farms stated: “Both farms produce foie gras using a special hand-feeding method, like no other farm in the world, so as not to harm the ducks.”78 This suggests they believe their approach is more humane than foie gras farms elsewhere (perhaps because they no longer use individual gavage crates, whereas some foreign farms only banned those in recent years). Farm Conditions & Care: The producers often invite chefs, reporters, and even lawmakers to tour their facilities (a tactic to demystify and normalize their practices). La Belle’s president Sergio Saravia has said “our ducks are well cared for, are allowed to roam freely,” and processed under USDA inspection80. He has challenged detractors to visit in person and “see, firsthand, the farming practices we have in place.”81 Similarly, Marcus Henley of HVFG insists “everything we do is with the ducks’ welfare in mind.”82 On tours, they show ducks in open pens, clean waterers, and claim the animals exhibit normal behavior (they often point out the ducks don’t run away from feeders – implying they aren’t terrified, though skeptics note the ducks are essentially conditioned and have reduced flight response). The farms tout on-site veterinarians and adherence to regulations. Notably, HVFG once tried to brand itself “The Humane Choice” in marketing materials83. This prompted ALDF to sue for false advertising in 2012–2013; HVFG eventually removed that slogan to settle the case8485, but the fact they used it indicates how strongly they wish to portray their foie gras as ethical. Scientific Rationalizations: The industry frequently cites waterfowl physiology to argue that gavage isn’t cruel. For example, HVFG’s website, quoting a sympathetic veterinarian, notes that ducks have hardened throats (esophagi) with tissue like the palm of a hand (so they can swallow fish and supposedly tolerate a tube)86. It points out ducks lack a gag reflex since their trachea opens in the tongue, not the throat, so they can breathe during feeding87. And it mentions that waterfowl naturally store fat in their liver for migration, and that this fattening is a “reversible process” in birds (implying foie gras is just an extreme extension of a natural ability)88. These talking points have been used for years to counter the cruelty claims. While it’s true ducks can eat large meals and have some unique anatomy, independent veterinarians (including the European Union’s scientific committee) have refuted the idea that force-feeding to the point of organ pathology is benign – concluding that it “is detrimental to the welfare of the birds” and that the enlarged liver is severely compromised and diseased8990. No Force-Feeding Alternatives: One thing notably absent from U.S. industry reforms is any move toward producing foie gras without force-feeding (so-called “naturally fatty liver” from non-gavaged birds). In Spain, a farm (Eduardo Sousa’s) gained fame for making foie gras by timing the ducks’ natural gorging season (no gavage), but it yields very limited quantities. U.S. producers have not attempted this; they maintain that controlled gavage is necessary for commercial viability. So, all talk of welfare reforms is within the context of continued force-feeding. Third-Party Audits or Certifications: Unlike some sectors, foie gras farms in the U.S. are not certified by animal welfare programs (e.g. Global Animal Partnership, etc. – those programs inherently wouldn’t allow force-feeding). The farms do point to their USDA inspection for food safety and state agriculture oversight, but that doesn’t equal animal welfare certification. There are no independent animal welfare audits made public. In a twist, La Belle Farm’s owners have diversified into humane-certified poultry farming: they launched LaBelle Patrimoine, a separate venture raising pasture-raised heritage chickens with high welfare standards (earning a Good Chicken Award from Compassion in World Farming in 2024)9192. However, this applies to their chicken line, not their duck foie gras operation. One might cynically note that the same family that force-feeds ducks is also producing GAP Step-4 rated chickens – indicating that they recognize the market for truly humane products, even as they continue foie gras on the side. Contradictions and Verifications: Animal rights groups vigorously dispute the farms’ rosy portrayals. Video evidence (past and recent) appears to contradict claims that foie ducks “roam freely” or are not harmed. For example, HVFG’s statement that ducks have freedom of movement is belied by footage of ducks in confined pens on wire floors, unable to swim or fly and piling on each other when frightened9377. The claim that the ducks willingly accept feeding is refuted by scenes of ducks recoiling or trying to flee the feeder in undercover clips9495. No independent welfare expert has endorsed the U.S. foie gras farms as humane. In fact, veterinary and animal behavior experts (outside those hired by the farms) overwhelmingly side with the view that force-feeding is cruel. The farms’ open-door policy for media has sometimes backfired: journalists who visit often note the apparent distress of the animals. For instance, a reporter touring La Belle in 2019 described ducks huddling and vocalizing in discomfort as the feeding tube was inserted, and characterized the process as assembly-line force-feeding57. Such first-hand accounts, even if not as brutal as the worst undercover videos, still convey suffering. In summary, the industry’s “humane foie gras” narrative is a mix of minor improvements and marketing spin. True, ducks at HVFG and La Belle are no longer isolated in tiny cages – a practice that even many European producers have abandoned – and the use of plastic tubes and more attentive feeding might reduce the incidence of certain injuries. But the core practice remains the same: over two weeks, ducks are forcibly overfed to the point of organ failure. Producers argue they’ve made foie gras “as humane as it can be,” but animal advocates respond that foie gras by nature can never be humane. Notably, when Hudson Valley once tried calling its product “the humane choice,” it was forced to cease that claim after legal challenge9685. The farms now stick to more subtle language like “ethical practices” and emphasize ancillary things like being family-run or having decades of experience. Ultimately, the industry’s attempt to rebrand as artisan farming – with cage-free barns and “hand-fed happy ducks” – has convinced very few outside the fine-dining world. And without independent welfare audits, these claims remain self-attested. As the ALDF bluntly put it, Hudson Valley “brutaliz[es] ducks for gourmet profits” even as it tries to present a caring image97.

Under mounting pressure, how do the remaining foie gras producers and their allies perceive their situation? Through recent interviews, public statements, and court filings, we can piece together the mindset and strategy of Hudson Valley Foie Gras, La Belle Farm, and major distributors: Defiance and Resilience: The overarching attitude is one of defiance – the industry does not see itself as on the brink of surrender. Instead, leaders project resilience and a willingness to fight on. “The challenges to foie gras have certainly made us a better company, a better farm and a better place to work,” says Marcus Henley of Hudson Valley98. Rather than expressing despair, he suggests that activist scrutiny forced them to improve practices and tighten operations. Henley acknowledges foie gras farming is “unusual,” but insists it is nonetheless “acceptable animal agriculture.”9899 This choice of words – framing foie gras as just another form of farming – is telling. The insiders do not concede that their business is cruel; they see it as misunderstood but fundamentally legitimate. Pride in Tradition and Craft: Those in the foie gras business often cast themselves as stewards of a culinary tradition and as skilled artisans. They emphasize that foie gras production has roots in ancient and French traditions and that they are producing a luxury food akin to fine wine or cheese. In defending NYC’s ban, for example, opponents called it a “desecration of a culinary tradition dating back to ancient Egypt, integral to French cultural heritage”100. HVFG’s late founder Michael Ginor (who sadly passed away in late 2022) was a gourmet chef himself and wrote lovingly of foie gras as an art. This cultural pride feeds into their strategic worldview: they feel foie gras is being unfairly singled out by people who “don’t understand farming or gastronomy.” We see this in how farmers complain urban politicians never even visit their farms. “We begged them to come visit before they made a decision that would wipe out the jobs of hundreds of people,” Henley said of NYC Council101102. There’s a palpable frustration that lawmakers were swayed by animal rights groups rather than listening to the farmers’ own narrative. Legal and Political Gambits: Strategically, the foie gras industry has shown it will use every legal tool to survive. From a psychological perspective, the farmers have adopted a bit of a “siege mentality” – feeling under attack by powerful, “reactionary” animal rights forces, and thus justifying aggressive legal countermeasures. “These well-funded groups are…often times acting without knowing all the facts,” La Belle’s president Sergio Saravia said, criticizing animal advocates103. The producers have aligned themselves with “right-to-farm” ideology and broader agricultural interests. By casting the fight as preserving farmers’ rights and rural livelihoods, they’ve rallied support from state agricultural departments and even the New York Farm Bureau. Henley and Saravia both publicly thanked NY Ag Commissioner Richard Ball for defending them104105. This shows a strategic positioning: link foie gras to general farming so it’s not isolated. A quote from Saravia after beating NYC’s ban sums it up: “It’s about more than just foie gras; it’s about preserving our right to farm and support our families.”35 The industry is effectively saying: if they come for our foie gras, no farmer is safe from meddling. This resonates especially in upstate New York and other rural communities. Economic Framing: Internally, the foie gras businesses see themselves as significant contributors to their local economies – and they wield this as a shield. HVFG and La Belle provide rare manufacturing jobs in Sullivan County, NY, a region with depressed economic indicators (unemployment over 16%, low incomes)106107. Henley highlighted that shutting the farms would kill the area’s employment, not just directly but by ripple effects (feed suppliers, trucking, etc.)108. This is a key part of their worldview: they believe the welfare of their workers and community is at stake, which justifies fighting bans. Indeed, during the NYC fight, they argued the ban would cost New York state “millions in revenue” and threaten “hundreds of Sullivan County farm worker jobs”109110. It’s a classic jobs vs. animal rights framing. Strategically, the farms have been very vocal about these numbers in court affidavits and the press, likely to bolster political sympathy. Survival vs. Exit: Do HVFG and La Belle contemplate an “exit strategy” from foie gras? Publicly, no. They express determination to continue their businesses into the future, possibly even to expand. In 2021, HVFG signaled plans to expand facilities in Ferndale, NY, applying to construct new barns (perhaps to modernize or increase capacity)111112. This doesn’t look like an industry planning to fold; it looks like one trying to weather the storm and possibly grow if new markets open (for instance, if another state like Florida could be developed as a market). Neither farm has hinted at voluntarily phasing out foie gras. Instead, they are adapting – La Belle’s move into organic chicken (LaBelle Patrimoine) is one adaptation, providing a foothold in the humane food market while keeping foie gras running. Essentially, they are hedging: diversifying products so that if foie gras gets shut down, they have other revenue streams, but not giving up foie gras unless absolutely forced. It’s notable that after the NYC ban scare, neither HVFG nor La Belle pivoted away from foie gras itself; instead, they doubled down legally to overturn the ban and succeeded19. Use of Public Relations: The foie gras companies and distributors like D’Artagnan (the largest U.S. foie gras distributor, led by Ariane Daguin) also engage in PR campaigns. They host farm tours for chefs and media to win hearts and minds. Anthony Bourdain’s widely-seen 2010 episode at Hudson Valley Foie Gras – where he portrayed the farm in a positive light – is an example of the industry’s PR success113. D’Artagnan’s CEO has penned op-eds defending foie gras as well. Internally, the industry folks likely feel that if only they can show people the farm, they can dispel myths. Henley lamented that NYC Council members never visited despite invitations101. This indicates a belief that transparency is on their side (though activists counter that the farms stage-manage tours). The strategic world-view here is: fight misinformation with information (their version of it). Hence websites like artisanfarmers.org and foiegrasfacts.org have been set up by foie gras supporters to present pro-foie gras arguments114115. Litigation as a Strategy: From a legal strategy standpoint, the foie gras industry has been remarkably litigious given its size. They have pursued cases up to the U.S. Supreme Court (unsuccessfully in CA’s case) and were willing to sue New York City and even the State of New York if needed. This signals a strategy of fighting bans tooth-and-nail, rather than compromising. They did not, for example, try to negotiate a longer phase-out or a lighter regulatory restriction – they went for outright nullification of bans. This indicates they see no middle ground that is viable; their entire business model is at stake, so their worldview is somewhat zero-sum: either we have the right to continue force-feeding ducks, or we are out of business. As Henley bluntly put it regarding avian flu risk: “We’d be out of business. It’s a scary situation.” if a single case hit their flock116117. That referred to bird flu, but it’s true for legislation too – one major market closing can be devastating. Acknowledgment of Risk: Privately or implicitly, the industry does recognize it is under threat. Phrases like “hill to climb” after years of bad press118 hint at their awareness that foie gras has a serious image problem. They often mention that they’re a “tiny industry” and paint activists as bullying the little guy (even though activists respond that it’s easier to target a small industry). We see this in legal filings where they emphasized how much of their sales depend on NYC, etc., essentially saying: ban us here and you kill us. They fought with such vigor precisely because they know a domino effect of city bans could collapse them. This indicates that, internally, they perceive the long-term political risk as existential. However, rather than planning an exit, they are betting on legal protection and political lobbying to carry them through. The victory in New York state (preemption) has likely emboldened them. After that ruling, their spokesperson crowed that it “stops local municipalities from establishing a dangerous precedent of dictating to us what farmers can grow and what people can eat”119120. This triumphal tone suggests they feel they’ve set their own precedent to shield themselves, at least in New York. In essence, the foie gras industry’s current worldview is a mix of siege mentality and stubborn optimism. They see themselves as rightful farmers and producers of a treasured delicacy, under assault by misinformed extremists, and they are determined to fight politically, legally, and through PR to keep their niche alive. They hold out hope that by diversifying (e.g., adding other poultry products) and by rallying sympathetic foodies and rural policymakers, they can withstand the campaign against them. Exit is not in their vocabulary right now – survival and vindication are. As one indication of long-term intent: La Belle Farm in 2023 described itself as having been in business over 25 years and looking forward to the next generation continuing the tradition12122. These companies are family-run, and it appears they are poised to keep foie gras going as long as they legally can, exhausting every strategy to do so.

Public Opinion: In 2025, foie gras sits in the American public consciousness as a highly controversial, largely negative concept. Polling consistently shows that a strong majority of consumers oppose the practice of force-feeding and support banning it. Notably, a 2019 Mason-Dixon poll of New York City voters found 81% in favor of a complete ban on foie gras from force-fed birds122123. This support crossed political lines – 78% of Democrats and even 83% of Republicans polled agreed on banning foie gras123. Such unusual bipartisan agreement underscores how foie gras cruelty is broadly recognized. Similar numbers have been echoed elsewhere: for instance, an earlier Zogby poll found about 80% of Americans (when informed about foie gras production) favored banning force-feeding12, and 80% of Pennsylvania voters supported a ban in that state124. In short, public awareness of foie gras is relatively high and sentiment is largely negative. For many, foie gras has become a symbol of “outdated cruelty” – an unnecessary luxury that’s easy to condemn. Animal welfare has become a mainstream concern in food purchasing (e.g., cage-free eggs, gestation crate-free pork are now selling points), and foie gras falls on the wrong side of that trend. A growing segment of consumers – especially younger generations – are uncomfortable with eating products associated with animal suffering. In practical terms, this has translated to reduced social acceptance of foie gras: - Retail and Dining: You will not find foie gras at most mainstream grocery stores or chain restaurants. Whole Foods Market banned foie gras sales way back in 1997 and continues to exclude it. Many large supermarket chains also do not carry it. It remains available through specialty gourmet stores or online, but it’s decidedly niche. In restaurants, foie gras is generally confined to fine-dining and high-end eateries. Mid-level restaurants or casual bistros rarely include it now, likely because (a) many chefs have ethical qualms and (b) they don’t want to court protests or alienate diners. As Councilwoman Rivera noted in 2019, foie gras was served in <1% of NYC restaurants14 – indicating that even in a food capital, it’s limited to a small luxury subset. - Chef and Influencer Stances: The chef community is somewhat split. Some prominent chefs (especially those of an older generation or classical French training) staunchly defend foie gras as a delicacy. They argue it’s no worse than other animal farming and bemoan bans as culinary censorship. On the other hand, a number of contemporary chefs and food influencers have renounced foie gras. With the rise of farm-to-table ethos and ethical sourcing, many chefs feel it’s easier to simply leave foie gras off the menu and use other luxurious ingredients (truffles, caviar, etc.) that don’t come with protest baggage. In the media, you’ll occasionally see chef debates: for example, when California banned foie gras, some chefs held secret foie gras dinners in defiance, while others publicly supported the ban. Overall, serving foie gras has become a statement – chefs know if they serve it, they may face social media blowback or picketers; if they don’t, they might miss out on an ingredient but gain goodwill. Increasingly, younger, sustainability-focused chefs opt out of foie gras. - Cultural Representation: Foie gras often pops up in cultural discussions as shorthand for extravagance or cruelty. Documentaries on food ethics (like “Eating Animals” or various Netflix series on factory farming) regularly mention foie gras alongside veal and fur as practices society is moving away from. Even fiction and satire reference it – for example, cartoons might joke about pampered elites eating foie gras, implying a disconnect with humane values. The term “foie gras” itself, meaning “fatty liver,” has almost negative connotations now in lay understanding. It wouldn’t be surprising to hear a character in a TV show express disgust: “Ugh, foie gras – isn’t that the thing where they torture ducks?” That level of awareness has permeated. - Social Media & Virality: Visual content of foie gras production is powerful and shareable. Platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram have hosted viral videos of force-feeding (usually posted by PETA, Animal Equality, etc.), racking up millions of horrified views. On Twitter/X and other networks, whenever foie gras hits the news (like a ban being passed or overturned), there’s a flurry of discourse, overwhelmingly condemning the practice. Memes and infographics circulate showing an image of a duck being force-fed with captions like “This is how foie gras is made – still want to eat it?” Such messaging has further cemented foie gras’s reputation as “the epitome of cruel food.” Influencers in the vegan and animal welfare space, of course, frequently bring it up. Even some food/travel influencers have pivoted; for example, a travel vlogger who in 2010 might’ve featured foie gras as a must-try French dish in Paris might in 2025 include a disclaimer or avoid it, acknowledging the controversy. Foie Gras as a Social Taboo?: It’s not yet at the level of fur (which in many circles is a total taboo), but foie gras is trending that direction in some demographics. Among progressive, urban foodies, boasting about eating foie gras could earn you side-eye or criticism these days. It’s increasingly perceived as anachronistic. In contrast, older or more traditional gourmands may still view it as a normal luxury. There is a bit of a generational and cultural split – for some high society diners, foie gras remains a status symbol. But broadly, the narrative has shifted such that foie gras consumption is often followed by a need to justify it (either by claiming the farm is humane or by downplaying the cruelty). Similar to how shark fin soup became frowned upon even among many who ate it before, foie gras is on a similar path of gaining stigma. Polling on Animal Welfare: Beyond foie gras specifically, public opinion has steadily moved toward greater concern for farm animal welfare. By 2023, numerous surveys show that Americans support humane treatment of farm animals and even legislation to ensure it. The foie gras issue benefits from this overall trend – it’s easier to rally people against a visibly cruel practice when society is already questioning the ethics of caged hens or gestation crates. As an example, in 2021 the EU announced plans to ban caged farming across Europe; that kind of news makes something like foie gras (already banned from production in many European countries11) seem even more out of step with the times. Foie gras has been banned in over a dozen countries worldwide125, and that fact is commonly cited in media, reinforcing the idea that it’s an outlier practice. In summary, consumer awareness of foie gras’s cruelty is high, and the narrative today largely frames foie gras as a cruel luxury that society is increasingly rejecting. While not 100% socially unacceptable yet (you can still find aficionados and it remains legal in most places), it has undeniably shifted from being a prestigious delicacy to something of a guilty pleasure at best – and a culinary outrage at worst. The momentum of cultural sentiment is clearly toward stigmatizing foie gras. Indeed, many restaurants and retailers have quietly dropped it not because of any law, but because the writing is on the wall: it’s simply not worth the backlash or the bad karma with customers. Foie gras is inching closer to joining items like whale meat or tiger bone wine – products of animal cruelty that survive on the fringes of society against a tide of moral disapproval.

With the U.S. foie gras industry now so small and embattled, animal advocacy groups are debating how much to invest in “finishing it off” versus focusing on larger-scale factory farming issues. What is the strategic thinking on foie gras, and what scenarios loom on the horizon? High-Leverage Target or Symbolic Fight? For many animal advocates, foie gras remains a uniquely high-leverage target despite its small scale. The reasoning: there are only a few producers and a narrow market – this is winnable. Achieving a total end to foie gras production in the U.S. would be a concrete victory, eliminating the suffering of hundreds of thousands of ducks a year. It would also be symbolically powerful: if society can ban or end foie gras, it sets precedent (legally and culturally) for addressing other factory farming cruelties. Indeed, organizations like Farm Sanctuary, ALDF, HSUS, and Animal Equality have spent decades pushing against foie gras precisely because it’s a strategic beachhead in the wider war on animal agriculture. A quote in Civil Eats captured this: “People refuse to eat it. Eighty-one percent of New Yorkers say they support a ban…Foie gras ultimately crosses the line, even for the most avid beef eater.”126. In other words, it’s low-hanging fruit – an easy sell to the public as something that should go. That said, some in the movement do view foie gras as a legacy fight that has perhaps diverted attention from saving vastly more animals. There’s an argument that with only two farms left, the issue is marginal, and energy might be better spent on farmed chicken or pig campaigns that affect millions of animals. However, most major groups have opted to continue until foie gras is truly gone, seeing it as both a matter of principle and a way to keep supporters mobilized. (As one commentator noted, occasional victories, even if largely symbolic, help energize the base of the movement127.) Current Movement Strategy: As evidenced by the campaigns in NYC, California, Pittsburgh, and planned in other cities, the animal protection movement’s strategy on foie gras is two-fold: legislate and educate. They are pursuing local legislative bans wherever politically feasible (city councils are often easier to convince than state legislatures). Groups like Humane Society of the U.S., Animal League Defense Fund, and local coalitions provide model ordinances and lobby councilmembers with evidence and polling data (for Pittsburgh, activists heavily emphasized the investigations and the broad public support4459). On the education side, advocates continue to generate media – from undercover videos to op-eds – to ensure foie gras stays in the public conscience as “cruelty that you can help stop.” There’s also a legal angle: ALDF and others have shown willingness to litigate (or at least threaten litigation) to enforce bans and truth-in-advertising (e.g., suing restaurants that try to skirt bans by giving away foie gras as a “free” item, which ALDF successfully stopped in California4950). The movement’s strategy can be summarized as: make foie gras as socially and legally untenable as possible, through any and all avenues – so that the industry collapses under the weight of public revulsion and regulatory prohibition. Future Scenarios: Full Collapse of Domestic Production: One plausible trajectory in the next decade is that Hudson Valley Foie Gras and La Belle Farm shut down. This could happen if their business becomes unsustainable – either due to losing key markets (if, say, a critical mass of cities and states ban sales) or due to internal decisions (owners retiring with no succession, etc.). Activists are clearly trying to engineer the former. The NYC ban would have been a near-fatal blow (20-30% of sales gone108), and while the industry staved that off, advocates are now replicating the effort elsewhere. If places like Washington D.C., Chicago, Boston, or Philadelphia enact bans in the coming years, the cumulative effect could be devastating to demand. We might reach a tipping point where foie gras is illegal in enough major cities that the farms cannot find sufficient restaurant buyers. It’s worth noting the farms rely heavily on restaurant sales (foie gras is not a big home-cooking item), so cutting off chefs in foodie hubs is key. A full collapse would likely look like this: one of the two NY farms closes (perhaps La Belle, the smaller one, if pressure mounts), leaving only HVFG; HVFG hangs on a bit longer but, faced with dwindling orders and perhaps another ban or an economic downturn, eventually closes or shifts to exclusively duck meat production. This scenario would mean no domestic foie gras, a historic milestone. Animal groups, naturally, see this as the endgame and would declare it a major victory. We are not there yet, but the industry is hanging by a thread – they produce under half a million ducks a year128, whereas just a decade or two ago it was closer to 1 million. The trajectory is downward, and collapse is conceivable if activism wins a few more battles. Shift to Imports and Underground Market: If domestic production ceased (whether due to collapse or an outright production ban in NY state, for example), foie gras would likely not disappear entirely from American plates – at least not immediately. Instead, we’d see a shift to imports and possibly a gray market. High-end restaurants that truly want to serve foie gras could import flash-frozen duck foie gras from France, Canada, or elsewhere, as long as it’s legal to sell in their jurisdiction. (This already happens to some extent; Canadian foie gras is sold through distributors, and if U.S. farms closed, those imports might rise.) If foie gras is banned in many jurisdictions, a black market element could appear: underground supper clubs or private dining events might serve it on the sly to epicurean clients, similar to how chefs in California held secret foie gras dinners during the ban’s early years. However, foie gras is not easily mass-smuggled (it’s perishable), so any black market would be limited. Animal advocates worry somewhat that ending U.S. production could outsource the cruelty overseas (where they have less leverage), but they also calculate that without local availability, foie gras would become a rare, costly delicacy that is more trouble than it’s worth for most. In essence, the product could be driven into near-obscurity – perhaps a few elite venues finding ways to procure it, but largely gone from mainstream awareness. Foie Gras as Socially Unacceptable: Even absent universal legal bans, the movement could achieve a scenario where foie gras becomes de facto obsolete due to public rejection. This is the cultural victory wherein even if it’s legal, hardly anyone wants to touch it. We see glimmers of this: large segments of consumers already consider it off-limits morally. If this trend continues, foie gras could join the likes of ortolan bunting (a songbird delicacy now socially shunned and illegal to sell) as something from a bygone era of excess. In this scenario, foie gras might still exist (perhaps imported, or made in some far-flung place) but offering it would be seen as tone-deaf or cruel, and thus most businesses wouldn’t bother. Essentially, it would have the status that force-fed foie gras = animal cruelty in the public mind, to the point that anyone who serves or eats it risks reputational damage. Animal activists are indeed aiming for this social norm shift. They often compare foie gras to practices like dog fighting or force-feeding geese for pâté de foie gras (in other countries) – things that are now broadly condemned. If they succeed, foie gras could linger only in tiny pockets of defiance. Industry Adapting or Relocating: Another trajectory, less discussed but possible, is the industry attempting to adapt technologically. There have been experiments with lab-grown (cultured) foie gras – e.g., a Japanese startup (Integriculture) and a French startup (Gourmey) have been working on cell-cultured foie gras products, with some aiming for restaurant trials by the mid-2020s129130. If these succeed, it could offer chefs a cruelty-free foie gras alternative that is biologically identical. The traditional farms themselves are not involved in this, but one could imagine a future where cultured foie gras hits the market and undercuts the rationale for force-feeding ducks. At that point, even many chefs might prefer the ethical alternative (assuming taste and price parity). The foie gras farmers might then try to pivot (though it would be a completely different business model – more biotech than farming). It’s speculative, but a possible long-term outcome where technology resolves the conflict by making traditional foie gras obsolete. Another adaptation: if New York State ever outlawed force-feeding (a bill to do so has been floated before), the farms might try to relocate to a more permissive state or even to another country. However, given the specialized nature of their operation and the already hostile climate in many states, it’s unclear where they’d go (perhaps somewhere like Texas or another rural area that welcomes ag business). This would only delay the core issues though, and they’d be operating in a country increasingly united against them. Animal Advocacy Perspective: Within the animal protection movement, foie gras is often cited as an example of their success in changing public attitudes. Groups like Animal Equality highlight their decade-long mission to end force-feeding globally131. Many advocates view foie gras as the beginning of the end for certain forms of cruelty – if society can agree on this, it opens the door to tackling larger but analogous cruelties (like foie gras, factory farming of chickens and ducks involves intense confinement and suffering, just at a bigger scale). Strategically, some see foie gras campaigns as a way to keep activists motivated and gain incremental legal precedents. For instance, getting courts to affirm that localities can ban cruel products (which NYC tried) could pave the way for other bans (fur, fur farming, etc.). Even the preemption fight in NY has value in clarifying how far “right-to-farm” laws go – that might influence strategies around other farm animal legislation. How Close is Structural Failure? The U.S. foie gras industry is arguably on the brink of structural failure, though not there yet. With only two major producers, it’s a precarious duopoly. The loss of any significant revenue source (like a major city market or export market) could tip them into unprofitability. They’ve already lost California entirely and now Pittsburgh. They narrowly escaped losing NYC (for now). Their ducks also face threats like avian flu, which in 2022 swept through poultry farms globally; HVFG admitted if even one case hit their flock of 50,000, it would be ruinous due to mandatory culling116. So biological risk is high too. In business terms, foie gras in the U.S. has very limited growth potential and many risk factors – not a stable long-term position. The next few years will be critical. If activists manage to knock out, say, Washington D.C. and one of the big dining cities (Chicago again or Boston), the dominoes might start to fall faster. It’s a bit of a race: the industry will try to hold on and find new customers (maybe targeting international tourism markets like Vegas even more), whereas activists will try to choke off those outlets. Given current momentum, it seems likely that domestic foie gras will continue to shrink. A structural failure (i.e., the business model no longer makes sense) could occur if, for example, New York State itself were to ban production – something activists might pursue via state legislation or a future governor’s agenda. Lacking that, financial pressure via lost markets might achieve the same end. Bottom Line: Animal advocates are cautiously optimistic that they are witnessing “the beginning of the end” of U.S. foie gras. Each campaign win (like Pittsburgh 2023) adds pressure, and even campaign losses (like NYC’s overturn) serve to galvanize them to find alternative strategies. They won’t declare victory until the gavage pipes are put down for good, but they’ve succeeded in making foie gras a pariah in the food world. The industry, for its part, is scrappy and won’t fold easily – but objectively, it is cornered. The likely trajectory, if current trends persist, is that U.S. foie gras production will continue to contract and could very well implode in the not-too-distant future, heralding a win for the animal welfare movement and a sign of shifting norms in how we treat animals used for food. 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